How Likely Are You to Hit The Royal Flush in Poker

How Likely Are You to Hit The Royal Flush in Poker
May 28, 2016 NEWS

The Royal Flush in poker is the game’s most sought after prize. For those that are not familiar with this game, a Royal Flush occurs when the player’s hand displays a 10, Jack, Queen, King, and Ace, all within a single suite. This is the best hand a player can obtain in poker and is superior to every other combination for this game. As you can imagine, this combination is incredibly rare, so rare in fact that there are professionals who have played poker for years who’ve never seen it. So, what is the likelihood of scoring a Royal Flush?

Royal Flush Chances during a Standard Poker Game

For a standard game of poker, the player may obtain the Royal Flush on average once every forty thousand to forty-eight thousand hands. To understand how rare this is, consider the fact that the typical poker player would play approximately two hundred poker hands within a single hour, which means that it would take roughly two hundred hours to reach forty thousand  hands. Depending on the player, this could be two hundred days, but for more casual players, the time needed could be much longer.

Some Have Played for Years and Never Obtained It

The important thing to remember about having to reach forty thousand to forty eight thousand hands to obtain a Royal Flush is that this is the average. Averages are not always accurate. For instance, some players have been able to gain a Royal Flush within thirty thousand hands, while for others it has taken over one hundred and fifty thousand hands.

While over time the average hands may be forty thousand to forty eight thousand; in reality, many players would have to play millions of hands to obtain it. The important thing to realize is that this particular hand is elusive, and will continue to be for eternity. This is what makes landing it so sensational!

How to Determine its Probability

It should also be noted that poker can be played in many different ways, but for classical poker, determining the probability of a Royal Flush will require two numbers to be known. These are the complete number of poker hands which are possible, and the complete number of ways in which the royal flush may be dealt.

Once you understand these two things, you can then determine the chances of obtaining the Royal Flush. For this, you would do simple arithmetic, and would divide the first and second number. Every hand is a five card combination with a maximum of 52. By using a combination formula, you will see that the complete number will go to over 2,598,960 distinct hands.

Because the Royal Flush is a type of flush, then every card must be part of an identical suite. This will mean that out of the 2.5 million+ poker hands, there are only four possible combinations that can indicate an identical suite. So take 2,598,960 and divide it by 4, and you will get a probability of 0.00015%. This also means that it's 1 in 649,740 chances that you will be dealt a Royal Flush.